Certainly,DeSantis would be the rational choice as presidential nominee for conservatives,but Trump has always prospered from the irrationality of the conservative movement.
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Then there is the risk in over-extrapolating from these midterm results. Bill Clinton was written off after the “Republican revolution” two years into his presidency,when the future looked like it belonged to the new House Speaker Newt Gingrich. However,the “comeback kid” ended up outlasting his conservative nemesis. In this manic phase of US politics,history has frequently made a mockery of hot takes. Conventional wisdom is not so reliable in unconventional times.
Had Joe Biden received the shellacking that befell Bill Clinton in 1994 or Barack Obama in 2010,calls for him to step down would have become cacophonous. Instead,the 79-year-old president has fortified his position as the party’s presumptive nominee for 2024. My sense,going back to whenI first saw him perform so abysmally on the campaign trail in early 2020,was that Biden was a flawed candidate but still the best the Democrats could muster. The midterm results reinforce that view. Biden is an underwhelming politician with a happy habit of over-performing on election day. As his White House chief of staff,Ron Klain,wryly noted:“Never underestimate how much Team Biden is underestimated.”
Certainly,the president has a record of legislative accomplishment on which to seek re-election – an infrastructure bill,a COVID relief package,significant environmental reforms,even a bipartisan gun control measure. Critically,he also has more street cred in the Rust Belt than any of the Democratic alternatives,such as the ultra-liberal Californian Governor,Gavin Newsom. The overturning ofRoe v. Wade has been a boon for Democrats.Exit polls suggested almost three out of 10 voters identified abortion as their paramount issue,outranking concerns in some states over inflation.
For all the high-fiving at the White House,Biden faces a torrid two years. The Republicans will use their majority in the House,and the subpoena power that goes with it,to pursueHunter Biden over his business dealings and to mount other nettlesome investigations. Eventually,they might move to impeach the president,albeit without any realistic chance of removing him from office.
IllustrationCredit:John Shakespeare
With the Republicans lurching further towards authoritarianism after the insurrection of January 6,Biden put democracy on the ballot,and received a rich dividend. The US electoral system not only prevailed in the midterms,but received a significant boost.
Democratic governors retained control of the key battlegrounds,Michigan,Wisconsin,Pennsylvania,and the party could end up taking Arizona,making it harder for Republicans at the state level to overturn the results of the 2024 presidential election. Biden can even draw a measure of contentment from Republican victories in Georgia. The incumbent GovernorBrian Kemp,who resisted pressure from Trump in late 2020 to reverse the outcome of the election,secured another four years. So,too,did Georgia’s Secretary of State,Brad Raffensperger,who famously refused to buckle whenTrump asked him to “find 11,780 votes” so that he would win this pivotal state.
For those,like me,who fear that US democracy is in peril,there was another welcome fillip. The midterms saw a surprising degree of ticket-splitting,especially from Republican voters who backed mainstream candidates but rejected the unqualified or deranged. Blind,rage-filled partisanship was not the main driver. Conservative voters especially displayed greater discernment,with many opting for competence over chaos.
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As well as reflecting on what happened at the midterms,it is worth highlighting what didn’t unfold. So far,there has been no post-election violence. No candidate or election worker was killed or injured during the campaign or on polling day – alarming though it was to see a kidnap attempt on the Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi,and an attack on the Republican’s gubernatorial candidate,Lee Zeldin,in New York. In a country in a state of cold civil war,these are blessings worth counting.
It would be tempting to conclude that the fever gripping US politics for much of the past decade has finally been broken. Alas,that is putting it too strongly. The tribal rancour remains. The militias have not gone away. Nonetheless,the midterms indicated that millions of Americans do not want their country to venture further down the same wormhole of wackiness and spiral completely out of control. It is also worth remembering that Donald Trump and his hardline allies have always benefited from America’s minoritarian system of democracy,with features such as the Electoral College,but at least the sensible majority has spoken.
Nick Bryant,a senior fellow at Sydney University,is the author ofWhen America Stopped Being Great:A History of the Present.Peter Hartcher is on assignment.
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