At the last election,the Andrews government won 55 of the 88 lower house seats,picking up once-safe Liberal seats in Melbourne’s east with a landslide 43 per cent primary vote.

Reed said the shift away from Labor was strongest in regional areas,particularly in the state’s east,as well as in outer suburbs in Melbourne’s west,but he added that some Labor-held seats with big margins may absorb heavy swings.

While statewide support for the Greens has slipped to 10 per cent from 12 per cent since the start of the campaign,the party hashigh hopes of winning the seats of Richmond,Northcote and Albert Park. Reed said 28 per cent of voters indicated they would support minor party or independent candidates,which would be a record high for a Victorian election.

Monash University associate professor Paul Strangio said Victoria had “an unpopular government and an unpopular opposition” and a hung parliament was possible,making preference flows crucial.

“The poll places the Andrews government in a position where if the trend against it continues,it is in danger of losing its majority,” Strangio said. “A 7 per cent decline in primary vote since 2018 constitutes a very sharp anti-government swing:it is in the vicinity of the swing Labor suffered when it lost office in 2010.

“At the same time,the Coalition’s vote is only marginally ahead of where it was in 2018 and unless there is a further shift in its direction,it remains in a position where winning government is likely beyond its reach.”

While Andrews has an edge over Guy as preferred premier – Andrews is ahead 48 to 34 per cent – the opposition leader recorded his highest score since taking back the Liberal Party’s leadership in September 2021.

Reed said Andrews was proving to be a drag on Labor’s primary vote,with the premier losing support among voters on every key performance measure. The biggest drops were in the fields of communications,competence and trust.

“Initially,people who had slipped from Labor had gone to independents and the Greens,but during the campaign those votes have gone to the Liberals,” Reed said.

“The Liberals have garnered a lot of votes by being the place you go to get rid of Daniel Andrews.”

But with the Liberal and National coalition holding just 27 seats,Reed said it was a “struggle to see how the Coalition[could reach] an outright majority”.

As part of its research,Resolve Strategic also asks voters why they intend to support Labor or the Coalition. The survey found Victorians who supported the Andrews government felt Labor had kept them safe during the pandemic,with one respondent saying the government had “managed the pandemic well” and its policies had saved lives.

By contrast,voters supporting the Coalition did not overwhelmingly support Guy. “I’m frustrated with Daniel Andrews personally,angry over the extended lockdowns and concerned about ballooning debt,” one respondent said.

With14 per cent of voters describing themselves as uncommitted,Reed said the final week of the campaign would be crucial,with the trend towards the Coalition at risk following revelations about the views of some of its candidates.

The Coalition has struggled to match Labor’s spending on TV,radio and social media advertisements,which strategists believe is key to winning over undecided voters.

But the opposition’s ability to push its message was significantly boosted in recent weeks by about $1.5 million from the Liberal Party’s fundraising arm,the Cormack Foundation.

It has allowed it to close thespending gap in the final fortnight of the campaign as many voters began to tune into the race. Most of the Coalition’s spending in the final week will aim to cast Andrews in a negative light and urge voters not to “let him get away with it”.

Cormack Foundation chiefs wereinitially reluctant to part with the millions needed by the Liberals to run a strong campaign.

But party sources said new Liberal president Greg Mirabella convinced its leaders the party’s campaign was coherent and worth investing in.

On Monday,Guy directly addressed voters he described as “disenchanted with Daniel Andrews but not yet sure if they might vote for me”.

“My message to you is very clear:we are safe,we are sensible,we’re centrist and mainstream,” he said.

The Morning Edition newsletter is our guide to the day’s most important and interesting stories,analysis and insights.Sign up here.