If train usage does not rise,the scales government used to sign off on the state’s largest infrastructure project could flip into negative cost-benefit territory.
While an audit office report released on Thursday noted passenger numbers had started to lift after a COVID-driven drop of 25 per cent in 2020-21,the figures were down even before the pandemic.
The 2016 business case projected daily rail passenger use in south-east Queensland with Cross River Rail would increase by 103 per cent between 2015 and 2026 for an annual average of 6.65 per cent.
But the actual Citytrain network trip data between 2015 and 2019 showed a 6.6 per cent increase,or an annual average of 1.6 per cent.
“There will need to be a significant increase in passenger trips over time for the forecast benefits of the project to be achieved,” the audit office report warned.
Removing traffic from Brisbane roads was another measure of success in the business case,largely “tied to the shift ... from road to rail” and reducing costs linked to congestion and crashes.