Economic growth below 1 per cent would ordinarily be considered recessionary. The economy expanded by just 1 per cent in 1990 before contracting by 1 per cent in 1991.
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The RBA is forecasting economic growth this year of 1.25 per cent before picking up to 1.7 per cent through 2024. The jobless rate,now at 3.7 per cent,is forecast to reach 4.4 per cent by the end of next year.
Oster said the RBA was focused on lagging indicators,such as unemployment and inflation,while those giving an insight into how the economy would perform in coming months were painting a bleaker picture.
The NAB’s own monthly business survey,released on Tuesday,showed sharp falls in business confidence,trading conditions,profitability,forward orders and employment.
It’s not only businesses feeling the pinch. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute measure of consumer confidence remains at recessionary levels with shoppers increasingly worried about the state of the jobs market.
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said inflation,the budget and taxation,economic conditions,interest rates and employment all remain among the issues most resonating with consumers.
Almost half of those surveyed expect the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates another full percentage point while there was a sharp increase in the number of people expecting unemployment to start climbing.
“Of most concern is confidence around jobs – which has been the single bright spot in otherwise bleak consumer surveys over the last year. This now looks to be fading fast,” Evans said.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese,speaking to the Committee for Economic Development of Australia conference in Canberra,said economic growth had to be shared among all residents.
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Albanese,who is pushing ahead with same pay,same work reforms in the face of opposition from major employer groups,said without equitable growth,Australia would face the same problems that confront the United States.
“We all have an interest in a society that doesn’t see increasingly a gap between people,” he said.
“We make no apologies for having a debate about this.[It is] a debate about this is in the interests of the sort of society that we want,which summarised best from my view is an economy has to work for people,not people working for the economy.”
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