Both camps view Queensland as an almost certain No vote,while Victoria is considered the state most likely to vote Yes. Western Australia is viewed as leaning towards No,Tasmania as leaning towards Yes,while NSW and South Australia are up for grabs.
The Yes camp has a mountain to climb,with the No campaign taking the lead inpublic opinion polls.
A defeat for the Yes vote would be a major blow to Indigenous Australians,damage Albanese’s political standing and boost that of Opposition Leader Peter Dutton,who has argued the “Canberra-based Voice” would“re-racialise” Australia and be regressive.
Albanese has said the vote is a “once-in-a-generation opportunity”,signalling he would not seek to create the Voice by legislation if the referendum fails.
The question all eligible Australian voters will be asked to answer on the day of the referendum is:
“A Proposed Law:to alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. Do you approve this proposed alteration?”
If the Yes vote prevails,a new chapter IX will be inserted into the Constitution with the title “Recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples”.
In recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Peoples of Australia:
“There shall be a body,to be called the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice;
the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice may make representations to the Parliament and the Executive Government of the Commonwealth on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples;
the Parliament shall,subject to this Constitution,have power to make laws with respect to matters relating to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice,including its composition,functions,powers and procedures.”
The two most recent referendums,on whether Australia should become a republic and whether to insert a preamble into the document,were defeated in 1999.
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The most recent referendums to succeed were in 1977 and related to casual vacancies in the Senate,the retirement age of judges,and whether territorians’ votes should count in referendums.
Cut through the noise of federal politics with news,views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley. Subscribers can sign up to our weeklyInside Politics newsletter here.