Across the four largest states,the trend in their job markets is pointing in one direction.
Unemployment is climbing,slack is growing and the impact of the Reserve Bank’s aggressive tightening of monetary policy is starting to bite. Plenty of economists try to dismiss the noise that accompanies the monthly jobs figures,given they can jump about.
After rising to4.1 per cent in January,the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to3.7 per cent in February,then inched up to3.8 per cent in March before this was revised up in Thursday’s jobs report to 3.9 per cent. That same report showed unemployment back at 4.1 per cent in April.
But dig down into the more stable trend measures and the message is undeniable.
NSW’s jobless rate has moved up from 3.3 per cent in April last year to 3.9 per cent this year. In Victoria,it’s gone from 3.8 per cent to 4.2 per cent. In Queensland,from 3.9 per cent to 4.1 per cent while in Western Australia it has lifted from 3.6 per cent to 3.9 per cent.
These four states are home to nine in 10 working Australians.
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Across the country,there are now almost 593,000 people unemployed on a trend basis. That’s the largest number since January 2022,and an increase of about 76,000 people,or 14.7 per cent,over the past 12 months.
Unemployment at 4.1 per cent is still extremely low. April was only the third month since the 2022 federal election that it has been 4 per cent or above,and before that,you have to go back to a couple of months ahead of the global financial crisis for anything similar.