He said another reason for the rise in listings was that owners who delayed selling during the downturn two years ago might now be moving ahead with plans.
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“We’re still seeing some catch-up from that long period where vendors were very much inactive,” Lawless said.
But he said conditions varied by location.
“Especially in weaker markets like Melbourne,regional Victoria there probably is an element of stress. We know that household balance sheets are generally quite stretched and high interest rates are taking a toll,so there could be an element of people selling because they have to.”
He added that Victoria’s increase in land tax could be a factor.
Sydney’s increase was not as steep as Melbourne,he said,“but like most markets,we are seeing vendors more active than a year ago”.
Lawless highlighted that the Sydney suburbs where the number of homes for sale has blown out most are largely in the west.
Total listings in the Rouse Hill/McGraths Hill region,Blacktown – north,Wollondilly,Penrith and Dural/Wisemans Ferry are all higher than the five-year average.
“A lot of these regions around the outer fringe,they tend to be mortgage belts. It could be a warning sign that first home buyers or lower income families are facing some financial challenges in these markets which is prompting them to put their property up for sale,” he said.
There was some similarity with Melbourne,where homes are sitting on the market in Sunbury,the Macedon Ranges,the Melton/Bacchus Marsh area,Nillumbik/Kinglake and the well-heeled inner bayside area of Port Phillip.
“A lot of areas around the west and north-west seem to come up quite high in the league table … this could be an early warning sign that some households are feeling the pain of higher interest rates,” Lawless said.
SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said some owners had decided to sell in the wake of the surprise price rises during 2023,and in the hope of an interest rate cut that would push prices higher.
“New listings are up this year. I think earlier on it was in the hope and expectation an interest rate cut was coming. The expectation in Sydney and Melbourne was the good times would continue on,so the market would remain buoyant enough to sell at a good price,” he said.
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He believed that although some investors decided to reduce debts,they were not forced to sell,because distressed-listings numbers remain low.
“No doubt there would be owners out there of multiple properties who are getting crunched a little by the rise in interest rates,” he said.
In Sydney,Starr Partners chief executive Douglas Driscoll attributed much of the rise in listings to improved consumer confidence this year compared with last year,as the cost-of-living crisis stabilises and interest rates appear close to the peak.
“We’re in this holding pattern where the market has for all intents and purposes plateaued,people have the ability to take a breath and make calm,measured decisions,” he said.
“We are obviously seeing a slight uptick in distressed sales,but nowhere near the amount that was anticipated. We’re seeing the occasional investor sell and cash out … There is a sense of light at the end of the tunnel.”
In Melbourne,Barry Plant executive director Mike McCarthy agreed property owners have more clarity around the path of interest rates than late last year,giving sellers confidence to go ahead with their plans.
He did not think mortgage stress was a problem across the board,but agreed some owners facing cost-of-living pressures have started to ask if they can afford their mortgage or need to downsize,while some investors are selling.
“We are seeing a number of investors exit the market because of the extra costs and imposts of holding residential property in Victoria,” he said.
“Landlords who are saying,‘it’s all just getting a bit too hard.’”