Australian universities are facing an existential crisis,and they feel attacked from all sides.

Just one year ago,some in the sector were hopeful once-in-a-generation reform would come from the release of Labor’s promised University Accord review.

Instead,universities have become the centre of Labor’s plan to slash migration.

As a result,a business model that produces billions of dollars in international student fees is under threat.

On top of this,pro-Palestinian encampments have tested the limits of free speech on campus,exposed divisions between institutions,led to allegations of antisemitism and even seen politicians calling for vice-chancellors’ heads.

Underscoring it all is a central problem for the lobbying power of higher education:there are no votes for universities.

The news

The federal government wants to slash migration from 528,000 to 260,000 by next year,and its main mechanism for doing this is by cutting the number of international students in Australia.

Since last year,the government has toughened visa processing,making it much harder for students from certain countries to study in Australia.

In a dramatic escalation,the government last month announced it would impose caps on the number of students at universities and vocational colleges. It can even impose these caps at a course level.

It comes on top of measures put in place to weed out dodgy operators who have rorted the visa system,with institutions enrolling students who want to enter the country for work instead of study.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has also vowed to reduce international student numbers which he claims will free up homes for Australians.

It comes at the same time universities are dealing with student encampments on campus,withpro-Palestinian demonstrators demanding institutions cut ties with Israeli universities and weapons manufacturers.

The great international student surge

International student numbers were steadily rising when enrolments for most institutions fell off a cliff during COVID-19.

This was a big problem for universities which havecome to rely on foreign student fees to prop up important research and development funding.

When borders reopened,the Morrison government introduced incentives for foreign students to stay in the country including offering more work hours and cheaper visas to help plug workforce shortages.

Students numbers and migration surged,and now Labor,with an election expected by next year,set its sights on slashing immigration,and targeting students is key.

The largest educator of international students – Sydney University,which relies largely on Chinese students – last year made $1.46 billion from international students – almost double what it made in 2017.

It’s unclear exactly how a cap would be imposed,but university chiefs have voiced concern it could lead to a “black hole” in education funding if the government went too far.

Incoming Western Sydney University vice-chancellor George Williams said part of the problem was the government saw universities as a convenient target.

“A lesser target and also less votes to be lost I suspect if we’re targeted than some other sectors,” he said on the Group of Eight’s podcast this month.

Pro-Palestinian encampments turn up the temperature

Off the back of similar protests in the US,pro-Palestinian encampments took over Australian campuses in April and many remain more than five weeks later.

The protesters – which are demanding institutions cut ties with Israeli universities and weapons companies - have exposed divisions in how different institutions have been willing to deal with them.

University chiefs have come under pressure from Jewish groups and the opposition to forcibly close down the camps,amid concerns that Jewish students do not feel safe on campus.

The activists have used slogans including “intifada” and “from the river to the sea,Palestine will be free” - which some Jewish groups regard as a call for the elimination of Israel,while others have insisted it is simply a call for freedom and equal rights for Palestinians.

What is clear is many of the protest groups - which include some Jewish members - do not support a two-state solution or Israel’s right to exist.

“We don’t want your two-state,we want all of ’48”,the Sydney University encampment has chanted,in reference to the establishment of Israel in 1948.

In Victoria,Deakin University and La Trobe University ordered protesters to disband,while students at Monash said they were told they would face disciplinary action for chanting slogans like “intifada”.

Melbourne Universityprotesters agreed to disband after they reached an agreement with the institution for it to disclose its ties to weapons companies.

Sydney University has resisted calls to intervene and shut down the camp,which has remained largely peaceful but attracted controversy after a group called Families for Palestine organised a “Kids excursion to Sydney University Palestine solidarity encampment”.

This week,vice-chancellor Mark Scott offered concessions to the encampment in exchange for them shutting down,including a review of its investments and ties to defence companies. This was rejected by students.

Opposition education spokeswoman Sarah Henderson called for Mark Scott’s resignation and accused the university of allowing antisemitism to spread unchecked.

“For weeks and months,Mr Scott has refused to take appropriate action against students and staff for antisemitic hate and vilification which has turned the University of Sydney into a cesspit of activism,” she said.

“This agreement with protesters must not proceed. I call on the Albanese government to intervene over this abrogation of responsibility by the university.”

In response,a Sydney University spokeswoman said while some people seemed to be urging for conflict it was focused on not fuelling tensions.

“Our position is very similar to offers made at leading universities from around the world including Harvard University and the University of Melbourne,” she said.

Why it matters

The unprecedented university cap and the discourse around the encampments have prompted concern around external intervention in universities.

Williams said universities worried about their social licence in the face of strong political attacks.

“We do rely on our politicians and leaders also to help explain to the community why a university matters,how it contributes to the nation,” he said.

“Because if we’re under attack from all sides that’s a really difficult scenario for us to grapple with.”

Group of Eight chief executive Vicki Thompson,the group which represents the country’s most prestigious universities,said someone in politics once told her there were no votes in universities,for or against them.

“But I wonder if the pendulum has swung and for some sectors of the community there is something to be said of tall poppy syndrome and having a go at universities,” she said.

Thompson said that for some,freedom of speech seemed to only be OK if the speech aligned with their beliefs.

“We haven’t seen what we’ve seen in the US with escalation and police storming universities and making arrests,” she said.

“There’s a reason for that;we were very clear that we do want sensible discussion but if there is a threat to safety and security and if that line is crossed,we will act.”

Who said what?

Where to from here?

TheUniversity Accord final report was handed down earlier this year with the federal government yet to deliver its response.

Lauded as a once-in-a-generation chance to reform,the view in much of the sector is that the review has fallen flat,especially aroundfunding.

Meanwhile,some believe the government’s proposed international student cap poses a significant threat to the future of universities.

Australian National University higher education expert Professor Andrew Norton thinks the legislation goes far beyond what was necessary to reduce numbers and would do the sector long-term harm.

He said draconian penalties proposed by the government for exceeding caps would lead to universities enrolling well under the cap,because they could not predict what percentage of offers will accept or drop out.

“They will adjust,but we’ll see waves of retrenchments over the next few years,” he said.

“For the Group of Eights that probably means a long-term reduction in research.”

Thompson,meanwhile,believes the current situation is an existential threat to universities’ very being.

“We are at an inflection point at how we are valued in society,” she said.

“We get on with the job and are perhaps taken for granted for the work that we do … but we operate under a distorted funding model where we are totally reliant on international fee revenue to prop up our national research effort.”

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