For a first-term opposition leader it’s a high-risk strategy. While it’s correct to argue that Dutton has been cautious across a range of policy areas,the adoption of this single policy means that,by definition,he is no longer a small-target opposition leader.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is staking his future on nuclear power.Alex Ellinghausen
Anthony Albanese certainly agrees. Last Sunday he told readers of this masthead that Labor would campaign every day against the policy right through to polling day.
We’ve been here before:in 2007 the then-opposition infrastructure spokesman,aided by the then Labor national secretary,Tim Gartrell,helped lead the campaigns against nuclear ambitions.
Albanese is now prime minister and Gartrell his chief of staff. And in a sign of how confident the pair are that a nuclear scare campaign will cut through,on Wednesday morning Albanese posted bucolic pictures of idyllic Australian rivers and beaches to his 401,000 Instagram followers.
The pictures of Newcastle,Anglesea,the Hunter Valley,Gippsland,Collie,Bribie Island,Gladstone,Barossa Valley,the Whitsundays and Jervis Bay came with an unsubtle message:“What do all these beautiful parts of Australia have in common? They’re at risk of a nuclear reactor in their backyard under Peter Dutton”.
But far from retreat,Dutton returned fire at the PM in a matter of hours and was confident enough to use Albanese’s own message and material against him.
Looking straight down the barrel of a camera – and with a screenshot of Albanese’s post clearly visible – Dutton told his 28,700 Instagram followers that “Australians expect better than this from their prime minister. Not only is it false,it’s also childish.”
“No one is proposing that a zero emissions nuclear power plant would be built on anything other than an end-of-life coal-fired power station site.”
Clearly,both men think they are onto a winner and both parties would have polling to back this contention up. But they can’t both be right.
Lowy Institute polling released last week showed that 61 per cent of Australia said they “somewhat” or “strongly” supported Australia using nuclear power to generate electricity. Back in 2011,62 per cent of people said they were either “strongly against” or “somewhat against” nuclear power.
February’s Resolve Political Monitor survey had similar results to the Lowy poll –,27 per cent of people did not have a strong view and were open to it,23 per cent opposed it and 15 per cent were undecided.
This explains,in part,Dutton’s confidence and his decision to make himself a big target on nuclear power.
Adopting the nuclear power policy has successfully kept Liberals who hold metropolitan seats in the same tent as climate-sceptic Nationals,such as Barnaby Joyce,during the first term of opposition.
It has allowed Dutton to argue that he believes in a path to net zero emissions by 2050 while also thumbing his nose at Australia’s 43 per cent emissions reduction Paris target,which some in the Coalition hate and want Australia to walk away from,and which we simply won’t meet if nuclear power is added to the mix because it will take more than a decade to build the plants.
The Nationals,in particular,want the roll-out of large-scale renewables paused or scrapped – and nuclear would fill that gap,though not for years.
But there is significant risk,too. Adopting this policy without the resources of government – and years of debate to prepare the Australian public – makes it that much harder. While still difficult,it would have been easier for former prime minister Tony Abbott to have begun this process back in 2013,with a fresh mandate and a big parliamentary majority.
How the nuclear question is framed in the minds of voters will play an outsize role in shaping the next election result.
Labor strategists believe that if Albanese and his team can frame the question so it is some version of “do you want a nuclear power station near you?” then they are onto an electoral winner.
They may very well be right,and there’s little doubt ALP campaigners will be turning up at Coalition campaign events wearing Hazmat suits and 44 gallon drums with nuclear waste symbols on them.
But Dutton’s Instagram post demonstrated the Opposition Leader wants to take the moral high ground against a scare campaign on the issue.
What isn’t clear is why the Opposition Leader,who has helped lead negative campaigns against the Voice to parliament,as well as offshore wind farms and new power transmission lines in rural areas,thinks that a negative Labor campaign against nuclear power won’t deliver a similar result.
Because if political history is any guide,negative campaigns – against the GST,the carbon tax,privatising Medicare,and the so-called “retirees tax” – usually work.
Dutton has made himself a big target by adopting nuclear power. Whether you agree or disagree with the proposal,he should be congratulated for his policy ambition.
It may also prove to be his demise.